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Facebook's IPO: More Yahoo than Google?

Facebook comes out at $100B valuation (27X revenue, 100x earnings!) with only $3.7B in revenue, 12% of that comes from Zynga (ie Farmville).  Google has a current valuation of $150B on $28B in revenue... not a bet I would take :)


Facebook's IPO: More Yahoo than Google?

By
Erik Sherman




 

(MoneyWatch)  

COMMENTARY There is so much hype around Facebook that it can be hard to put the numbers, and company, into perspective. But for all the new age talk of connecting people, it's still a business -- one that largely makes its revenue from advertising. Now Facebook filed for its IPO and there are some figures to look through.

But even then, to understand Facebook, you have to see how it compares to other companies as Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), and AOL that are in the same business of using the Internet to attract users and then sell ads. When you do, you see that Facebook is really more Yahoo than Google, at least for now. That's particularly true in that the company needs a different way to make money than it has used. Without a significant change in strategy, it will likely top out in the near future.

Facebook in a nutshell

There has been extensive speculation and leaks about how Facebook has been doing. But now it's time for guessing to move to the side. In 2011, the company had revenue of $3.71 billion. That compares with the previous few years as follows: 2010, $1.97 billion and $777 million in 2009. That was 154 percent growth between 2009 and 2010, with 88 percent growth between 2010 and 2011.

Of course, as such companies as Groupon (GRPN) and Pandora (P) have shown, revenue can mean little without at least a move toward profitability. Facebook actually made a profit in all three of its reported years. In 2008, net income was 29.5 percent of revenue. In 2009, it was 30.7 percent. It dropped to 26.9 percent last year. The company ran at a net loss in both 2007 and 2008. Clearly, though, this is a business model that works far better than Groupon, Pandora, and some other Internet companies that recently went public.

Another way to look at the company is revenue per user. If you take Facebook's own claims of 800 million active users and look at the last six months of revenue, to match up with more recent revenue, you get $1.7 billion for 800 million users over six months. Project that to a full year and it's $3.4 billion for 845 million users, or $4.02 per user per year -- and that includes both ads and other revenue, which, according to Facebook, really means the company's cut of what Zynga makes.

The competitive landscape

How does Facebook's financial performance compare with other companies that depend on online ads for revenue? Start with Google. Last year, the search giant came in with $37.9 billion in revenue. Of that, $36.5 billion was ad revenue. According to the company's quarterly earnings announcements, traffic acquisition costs (TAC), which is the amount of revenue that Google's partners get, ran around 24 percent. Take out all costs of revenue and you still have $24.7 billion, or 65 percent gross margins. Given Google's approximately 1 billion users, that Google's is $36.5 in ad revenue per user. The company's market cap is about $189 billion.

Yahoo had roughly $5 billion in revenue last year. Granted, that amount has been falling -- it was down about 21 percent from 2010. Revenue without TAC was $4.4 billion. Gross profit was about $3.5 billion for gross margins of 70 percent. Yahoo's market cap is $19.2 billion. It's the mid-tier player that is about a tenth the size of Google. Yahoo still quotes 2004 numbers that it has 274 million unique users. That would translate to $16.06 per user per year.

AOL had a total of $2.2 billion in revenue, of which $1.3 billion was advertising. Overall gross margin was just under 28.1 percent. AOL has a $1.6 billion market cap, making it a little under a tenth the size of Yahoo, or two orders of magnitude smaller than Google.

Another Yahoo?

Facebook is growing quickly. In that sense, it leaves Yahoo far behind. The company is also comfortably profitable, which will drive up the IPO price. But given the comparative sizes of their revenues, Facebook's growth is disappointing compared to the nearly 30 percent revenue growth -- virtually all ads -- that Google saw between 2010 and 2011.

Facebook may also be reaching the end of the growth it can expect from its current strategies. The company claims more than 800 million active users. Some evidence suggests that thenumber of users is flattening and that it is reaching a maximum of what it can expect.

In the middle of last year Facebook missed internal revenue projections by $500 million, or about 25 percent, and that was with its old growth in users. Even if the company does grow larger than Yahoo, unless things change significantly, it may only become a company that falls far short of what Google has obtained.

 

 

"Do you think Facebook is worth $100 billion?" Me neither...

... and neither do 89% of people that took this WSJ.com poll.  

But then, what do I know? (no need to rush to agreement!)  Facebook is a great execution of an awesome concept.  It is a useful site and an interesting company.  Obviously, since there are now only seven people on the planet who are NOT on Facebook (yes mom, I am talking about you!), the reach and targeting capabilities are incredible.  Online advertising (especially display) is growing fast.  Facebook is hot and clearly on a roll.

But is it worth $100 billion dollars?  The Wall St. Journal has a fasciniating look at various perspectives.

Read the full article here.

FACEBOOK

 

Facebook Planning to Release an iPad App (finally!)

Facebook ipad app 300x225 Facebook Planning to Release an iPad AppFacebook is planning to release an iPad app with “slick design” soon, reports PCWorld.

Facebook has already offered app for the iPhone but is still lagging behind in terms of producing any app for the iPad. As a result, iPad users have no option but to use third-party apps or continue using Facebook’s regular website.

According to reports from New York Times, Facebook has already spent a year in the making of new iPad app. The app will come equipped with new functionality for Facebook Chat and Groups, in addition to offering a completely unique experience for the users for photo and video usage. The new app will let you directly upload photos and video in the app and see them as a full screen view and at full resolution.

There are also reports of Facebook having plans for an HTML 5 web app for iOS devices as well as a new iPad-optimized website. According to these reports, this new site will not be replacing the Facebook’s iOS apps but act as a ‘supplement’ to it.

How to Avoid and Prevent Facebook Spam via @mashable

It's embarrasing... you unknowingly post a spam link indicating you "Like" a link to a vulgar video or "LOL... is this you".  In many cases these messages are posted to your wall without your knowledge and are automatically removed before you see them.  Unfortunately, your friends saw them and many clicked, spreading the spam.  There are simple steps you can take to prevent this.  I found this article useful and well written.

Like death and taxes, spam is one of life’s inevitabilities. From junk emails to fake pharmaceutical advertisements to bogus comments on websites like this one, spam is a very real (if aggravating) part of online life.

As Facebook emerges as the communications platform of choice for a growing number of individuals and brands, the spam problem — both from other users and from applications — becomes a more pressing concern.

Facebook is doing a lot to help curb app-generated spam, with platform spam down 95% in 2010, but no automated system is perfect — especially when the platform is as large as Facebook.

Here are some tips to reduce the amount of spam that you see on Facebook — and avoid contributing to the problem yourself.


Be Aware of Facebook Link Scams (Experts Can Get Fooled Too)


 

 

 

We cover many of the most prevalent Facebook scams as they take place across the web — and many are easy to spot.

These wall attacks almost frequently lead users to agree to install a Facebook application that requires that a user authorize the ability to post to walls and friend pages.

Sometimes the scams are easy to detect — “OMG Click here to watch this video, you can’t miss it” or something else that is baiting. Other times, however, the scams can replicate promotions or apps that really do exist.

Last month, a Mashable reporter fell victim to a Facebook scam purporting to be part of a Southwest Airlines promotion. The damage was limited and it was cleaned up quickly, but it’s a good reminder that even the best of us can fall for these things.

A few things to keep in mind about these types of spam app attacks:

  • Beware of short links that accompany text on your wall from people who don’t normally post links.
  • Investigate or research any app that seems too good to be true before agreeing to install it.
  • Pay attention to what apps you authorize to post to your wall.

If you do fall victim to one of these app spam attacks, be sure to follow Jolie’s instructions in the Southwest post:

  • Visit your Facebook privacy settings and click on the bottom section that says “Apps and Websites.”
  • You will see a listing of the most recently accessed apps from your account, select the offending app and remove it from your account.
  • Delete any messages posted by the app on your behalf and notify any friends that might have been spammed.

Also keep an eye out for popular scams and waves of attacks. We cover these topics frequently on Mashableand the Sophos Naked Security blog is another great resource.


Moderate Spam Comments on Pages


 

 

 

Facebook has automatic spam filters that gray out comments on the Page wall that Facebook thinks contain spam.

These filters work pretty well, but it’s worth checking out your Page every so often to make sure genuine comments aren’t incorrectly marked as spam.

Likewise, posts that are not spam can be marked as spam when you run across them. Wall posts can be flagged as spam and the accounts, if you believe they are fraudulent, should be reported to Facebook.

SocialFresh provided a good overview of some options for page administrators in cutting down on spam.

Some of the highlights include altering settings so that the default wall view is “Only Post by Page” and preventing users from posting links in their wall posts. Because a lot of spam contains links, preventing links can also keep the spam at bay.


Be Aware of What Information You Provide Apps


 

 

 

Not all Facebook spam comes by way of rogue apps that send messages out on your behalf. Now that Facebook allows apps to access your email and send you messages, it’s possible that apps that appear to be legit can still grab your email for annoyances later.

A good rule of thumb when using apps is to investigate the settings. If an app seems to require an inordinate amount of access to your profile and the brand or app maker isn’t well known, then the best practice is simply to avoid using the app.


Use a Clickjack-Revealing Bookmarklet


Aside from rogue applications that try to trick users into spamming their friends, another popular Facebook spam method is known as clickjackingClickjacking, sometimes called likejacking, happens when a user clicks on a link and is taken to a page with a hidden Like button. Clicking anywhere on the page will “like” the post and publish it to your news feed. Friends see this and investigate the link, unwittingly propagating the spam.

We’ve seen this time and time again over the last ten or eleven months. Just last week, Charlie Sheen’s newfound “popularity” was used to perpetuate a clickjacking attack.

Researchers at the cloud security firm Zscaler have built a JavaScript bookmarklet designed to help uncover these clickjack sites. To avoid spam, simply hit the bookmarklet on a suspect site before clicking anything to reveal hidden Like buttons and iFrames.

(The Facebook Marketing Series is supported by Buddy Media, Power Tools for Facebook. Have something new to tell 500 million people? Learn the best way to manage multiple brands on Facebook with this webinar.)

 

 

Biggest Facebook Security Threats

via MW_full.jpg

Forget those phishing emails that attempt to get your credit card or bank sign-in information. When crooks want to know how to get into your bank account, they post a message on Facebook. These messages appear so innocuous and so appropriate in the Facebook setting that you are likely to not only get conned, but pass on the scam.

Facebook is the new frontier for fraud, says Tom Clare, head of product marketing at Blue Coat, an Internet security company that does annual reports on web threats. In just this past year social networks have soared to 4th from 17th most treacherous web terrain -- behind porn and software-sharing sites, which you probably know to avoid.

What makes Facebook so treacherous? Us.

It starts with the fact that we are inundated with requests to set up passwords to get into our work computers, our online bank accounts, Facebook and every other web-based subscription. So what do we do? We use the same password.

"Crooks understand that most users use the same password for everything," says Clare. "If they can get your user credentials for your Facebook account, there's a good chance that they have the password for your bank account."

If you are smart enough to have separate passwords for Facebook and your financial accounts, crooks get at you through a variety phishing attempts that you might think are Facebook games and widgets. But look closely and you'll realize that they deliver answers to all of your bank's security questions -- and possibly clues to your passwords -- right into the hands of the crooks.

Think it couldn't happen to you? Let's see if you recognize any of these recent Facebook messages that jeopardize your security. All of these came from my Facebook friends in just the past few weeks:

1. Who knows you best?

The message reads:

Can you do this? My middle name __________, my age ___, my favorite soda _______, my birthday ___/___/___, whose the love of my life ______, my best friend _____, my favorite color ______, my eye color _______, my hair color ______ my favorite food ________ and my mom's name __________. Put this as your status and see who knows you best.

How many of these are the same facts your bank asks to verify your identity? Put this as your status and everybody -- including all the people who want to hijack your bank account and credit cards -- will know you well enough to make a viable attempt.

2. Your friend [Name here] just answered a question about you!

Was it possible that an old friend answered a question about me that I needed to "unlock?" Absolutely. But when you click on the link, the next screen should give you pause: 21 Questions is requesting permission to ... (a) access your name, profile picture, gender, networks, user ID, friends and any other information shared with everyone ... (b) send you email ... (c) post to your wall ... and ... (d) access your data any time ... regardless of whether or not you're using their application.

Can you take that access back -- ever? It sure doesn't look like it. There's no reference to how you can stop them from future access to your data in their "terms and conditions." Worse, it appears that to "unlock" the answer in your friend's post, you need to answer a bunch of questions about your other friends and violate their privacy too. I didn't give 21 Questions access to my information, but the roughly 850 people who joined "People Who Hate 21 Questions on Facebook" apparently have and can give you insight into just how pernicious this program can be.

3. LOL. Look at the video I found of you!

This is the most dangerous of all the spam messages and it comes in a variety of forms, says Clare. It's actually a bid to surreptitiously install malware on your computer. This malware can track your computer keystrokes and record your sign-in and password information with all of your online accounts.

How does it work? When you click on the link, it says that you need to upgrade your video player to see the clip. If you hit the "upgrade" button, it opens your computer to the crooks, who ship in their software. You may be completely unaware of it until you start seeing strange charges hit your credit cards or bank account. Up-to-date security software should stop the download. If you don't have that, watch out.

Better yet, if you really think some friend is sending you a video clip, double-check with the friend to be sure before you click on the link. When I messaged my high-school classmate to ask if she'd really sent this, she was horrified. Her Facebook account had been hijacked and anyone who clicked through was likely to have their account hijacked too. That's how this virus spreads virally.

4. We're stuck!

It started out as an email scam, but now the "We're stuck in [Europe/Asia/Canada] and need money" scam has moved to instant messages on Facebook, where it can be more effective. Most people have learned not to react to the email, but instant messages help crooks by forcing you to react emotionally -- They're right there. They need help, now. A friend got one of these messages last week from the parents of a close friend. Her reaction was the perfect way to deal with it: She immediately called her friend and said "Have you talked to your parents lately?" The response: "Yeah. They're right here."

Facebook has launched a security system to combat account hijacking that allows crooks to send messages and posts through your account. You can get updates on what they're doing at Facebook's security page, where they've also got a nice little security quiz that's definitely worth taking.

Are Likes Poised to Replace Links as the Web's Primary Signal? via @steverubel

A thought provoking, well written post by Steve Rubel on the power of "likes".  The "like" button, along with retweets are the new signal for interest and impact.

Are Likes Poised to Replace Links as the Web's Primary Signal?

By Steve Rubel:  SVP, Director of Insights for Edelman Digital, a division of Edelman - the world's largest public relations firm.

For years the mighty hypertext link has served as the web's traffic signal network. Links guide where our clicks, attention and, therefore, money flows. It has given rise to multi-billion-dollar businesses and even entire industries. As the blockbuster AOL/HuffingtonPost deal shows, we truly do live in what Jeff Jarvis calls "The Link Economy." But maybe just maybe that economy could be peaking.

 

More recently it appears that an equally powerful network of signals has emerged just as certain kinds of links are being called into question in the mainstream press. Enter the like, which Facebook CTO Brett Taylor embraced in 2007 while with Friendfeed and Facebook copied in 2009. It has since flourished under Taylor's lead at Facebook as it mushroomed to 600 million users. These millions have not only emphatically embraced the like on the social network itself, but more importantly across the millions of sites that use Facebook's social plug-ins. Some 65 million Facebook users like things daily.  Read full post here>>>

 

The Most Successful Facebook Ads via @alleyinsider

Facebook users are far more likely to click on ads for entertainment, media sites, and blogs than for other kinds of ads.

This chart from a recent Webtrends survey of more than 11,000 Facebook advertiseements measures clickthrough rates (red) and cost per click (blue) for different categories of ads. There's a huge jump in clickthrough rates for the last two categories -- Media & Entertainment and Tabloids & Blogs. In other words, stuff that's fun to discuss with friends.

Health care ads are the least successful, followed -- somewhat surprisingly -- by ads for Internet and software products.

chart of the day, facebook ctr cpc per sector, jan 2011

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-facebook-ctr-cpc-per-sector-2011-1#ixzz1CegHCQSS